How to Prepare for the Coming Inflation



 
 

Annual inflation rates 1975-1986

“Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.” Ronald Reagan

 

MAIN TOPIC: Inflation is Upon Us

For those of you in your 20′s and 30′s, you have been fortunate to live in a time with relatively low inflation. This low inflation is unlikely to continue and the consequences for high inflation are great! Before I continue, let me state that NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE! That said, as any student of Economics 101 understands when the money supply balloons, there is more money chasing the same supply of goods and prices will rise. The dollar will be worth less and it will require more dollars to purchase the same amount of stuff!

 

In fact, in the November 22 issue of Bloomberg Business Week a recent meeting of 23 economists was referenced. These individuals posited that Bernanke’s current “planned asset purchases (strategy) risks currency debasement and inflation.” So not only is ensuing inflation my opinion, but also that of economists much smarter than I!
 
If you want more evidence that inflation is on the horizon consider this; there is a cotton shortage in China, the producer of 26% of the world’s cotton. Not only that, but the Chinese Yuan is appreciating. Plus, you have the growing middle class in China and India increasing the world wide demand for basic commodities such as cotton, coffee, and metals. Whether you get the economics behind the post or not, the end result is prices on cotton and Chinese exports are going to rise! When demand increases and supply remains constant or declines, then PRICES RISE.

 

 Take a look at the charts. The first one lists the annual inflation rate for 1975 to 1986. From 1975 to 86, inflation ranged from about 2% in 1986 on up to 13.58% in 1980 and a cumulative 110.36% for the ten year period.Now, take a look at  the inflation rates from 1975 to 1986 (in the second chart) and compare them with those of this last decade!  The cumulative inflation rate of this past decade is a paltry 28.37%. Big difference! If you bought a $50 item in 2000, factoring in the rise in inflation, that item would cost about $64.19 this year. And many  goods such as Asian imports and electronics have actually declined in price.  

Compare recent inflation with that from 1975 to 1986 where a $50.00 item purchased in 1975 would cost $105.20 in 1986. Now, that is a huge difference. Although you may not be thinking much about inflation now, you should be. 

Practical Application; Inflation Busting Strategies

When I was a little girl, my mom bought huge amounts of toilet paper, canned goods, and other non-perishable items on sale and stored them in the basement. Although it was annoying to hunt down a roll of toilet paper in the basement; now I totally get it. During those times, with increasing inflation, buying large quantities on sale was a true inflation hedge! Recently, many individuals wait for items to drop further in price before purchasing. With high inflation, don’t wait to buy an item, if the price is good.    

Begin developing inflation busting strategies now and you will be better equipped to cope with the  almost certain future price increases.    

Consider these shopping and investing tips:     

  • Stock up on sale commodity items. With cotton prices sure to rise, clean out the Hanes aisle during their underwear sales.
  • Don’t forget the towels and sheets during the annual January white sale.
  • Paper towels, napkins, toilet products etc. are other products to stock up on when on sale. 
  •  Think of other non-perishables to buy in bulk.
  • Avoid buying bond funds now! With interest rates sure to rise, the principal value of the fund will decline as interest rates rise.
  • Keep a diversified portfolio, as the future is uncertain. It won’t protect you from market declines, but with diversification, when one investment class falls, another may increase.
  • Pick up my 20 Minute Guide to Investing for time tested investing strategies in an easy to digest ebook.

ACTION STEP:

Get a notebook and label it: “(your name) Personal Finance” and keep it by the computer. Use it to keep all of your personal finance goals, thoughts, activities, and plans.   

  • Make an effort to buy in bulk when prices are low on standard items. (But don’t overbuy items you don’t need!)

Caveat: This article is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for your individual situation. 

What inflation busting recommendations do you have?     

v_4_htgr cover

How to Get Rich: Wealth Building Guide for the Financially Illiterate

Do you know how to get rich?

Discover wealth building secrets of the rich, in this book

Buy from Amazon

22 Responses to How to Prepare for the Coming Inflation
  1. retirebyforty
    December 1, 2010 | 7:44 am

    Instead of stocking up on commodity items, how about we think bigger? What do you think about acquiring more rental properties? If inflation is going to blow up, we might as well leverage as much as we can right now. Is that a good way to hedge against inflation? Over the long run, rental income will go up with inflation while mortgages stay the same.
    retirebyforty recently posted..Epic Fail on Black Friday 2010My Profile

  2. Barb
    December 1, 2010 | 7:50 am

    @Retire-Are you reading my mind? You are absolutely correct. If you have met your basic financial needs, have a 6 month savings cushion, then buying assets on sale (for appreciating assets) like financing and real estate is a wonderful idea!

  3. Jacq @ SMRM
    December 1, 2010 | 9:18 am

    I’m going to come off as sounding evil here, but I want interest rates to sky-rocket. One of my dad’s friends sold the family farm in 1980 or so and invested it in T-bills or something similar (and safe) at 18%. That’s my fondest dream – safe and high.

  4. Barb
    December 1, 2010 | 1:49 pm

    Jacq-So much depends on whether you are a borrower (mortgage, car, credit card debt) or lender (think CDs and bonds). Lenders would appreciate some higher rates! I just received the last coupon (interest) payment on a 20+ year bond paying 12% interest from the 1980′s! There are pros and cons to every economic scenario.

  5. Jacq @ SMRM
    December 1, 2010 | 7:27 pm

    Oh I’ll be a lender. :-)

  6. Kevin@InvestItWisely
    December 1, 2010 | 11:12 pm

    No mention of gold or real estate? :P

    Since you Americans can get 30 year fixed mortgages… a nice rental property could look pretty attractive.
    Kevin@InvestItWisely recently posted..Walkin’ in a Winter WonderlandMy Profile

  7. Mark
    December 2, 2010 | 3:46 am

    Buy TIPS and I-bonds. Both of these securities keep pace with inflation.

  8. Barb
    December 2, 2010 | 8:26 am

    Hi Kevin, Gold is way too expensive now with more downside than up. As Retirebyforty suggested, Real estate is on sale now, so if you have the resources, now is a good time to get into the market! In fact, I’m glad you mentioned it Kevin, for those with their other financial needs under control, this is a sweet time to venture into a rental property. (Beware, managment is time consuming and requires a nice cash cushion for those unexpected expenses)

  9. Barb
    December 2, 2010 | 8:31 am

    Mark-Great suggestion. TIPS and I Bonds were designed as inflation hedges. I recommend buying individual TIPS and I Bonds and dollar cost averaging (spreading your purcases over time). Thank you for bringing these investments up!

  10. youngandthrifty
    December 2, 2010 | 11:03 am

    Great suggestions!
    My thing is buying stamps (that don’t have the prices on them) and bus tickets lol.
    youngandthrifty recently posted..5 Tips to prevent eating out from eating a hole in your walletMy Profile

  11. Everyday Tips
    December 2, 2010 | 11:57 am

    I wish I had the money for real estate right now, because that is exactly where I would be headed.

    We already stock up on staples, just because I love to take advantage of sales. However, that was a great tip you gave about bonds.

  12. Invest It Wisely
    December 2, 2010 | 11:59 am

    Well, all commodities have shot up, not just gold. ;)
    What do you think about “black gold” ?
    Invest It Wisely recently posted..Book Review- The Great Credit ContractionMy Profile

  13. Barb
    December 2, 2010 | 12:34 pm

    @Mark-TIPS and I Bonds are a good suggestion. Although I would not put all of your cash in them right now, but dollar cost average into them. (Buy TIPs or I Bonds at regular intervals)

  14. Khaleef @ KNS Financial
    December 9, 2010 | 5:52 pm

    As for as household items, we have managed to fill 4 large bins full of various items that we got for next to nothing shopping at CVS (and a little from Walgreens)! Since we are in debt, we haven’t done much with our investments, yet. But I plan to look at them in the next few weeks!

    Unfortunately, the price of many commodities have gone up. This means that investors must be willing to perform a lot of research and not just buy off of basic suggestions or historical patterns.
    Khaleef @ KNS Financial recently posted..CVS Shopping for Black Friday 2010 – Saved 127- Spent 167- Made 190My Profile

  15. Barb
    December 10, 2010 | 8:42 am

    @Kevin-Are you referring to “black gold” ie oil (like in the Beverly Hillbillies)? I have made a decision not to worry about having a commodities allocation in either the portfolio I professionally manage or our personal one. I believe with enough diversification across a variety of asset classes, investing in commodities is unnecessary.
    @Khaleef-Your CVS foray’s are always impressive :) . As I’m sure you know, best use of your cash is just paying off the non mortgage dept as quickly as possible!

  16. milfs in stockings - milf mingle
    January 21, 2011 | 8:23 pm

    very cool site. Filled me with a even better comprehension this country’s economy. Thanks a lot buddy

  17. Alex Young
    February 6, 2011 | 11:36 am

    This is an excellent post and thanks for sharing. With rising inflation levels another anti-inflationary strategy would be to stock up on commodities themselves, in addition to commodity items as mentioned in your post, im talking silver, rice etc; all of the things that tend to do excellently in an inflationery environment. The two mentioned still remain depressed in terms of price, so still a lot of money to be made :)
    Alex Young recently posted..The Financial Statement – A PrimerMy Profile

  18. frosty
    October 7, 2012 | 2:18 pm

    Real estate is a safe bet – but you will need to be patient and it does take work on some continual basis. I prefer diversification in the stock market…. it is easier and if you do the math it’s probably a better return.

  19. Barb
    October 8, 2012 | 11:19 am

    @Alex, Inflation is certain to come, the only question is when.
    @Frosty-Real estate is definitely a lot of work, there is no such thing as passive income. All income generation requires work. Only time will tell which returns outperform. It would be nice to have a look into the future.

  20. Arthur
    October 19, 2012 | 4:05 pm

    When inflation will come and interest rates will go up there will not be too many people who will want to pay high interest rates on mortgage and real estate prices will go down.
    Pay off all of your loans, fix everything around house set aside some money, buy gold coins and wait. Government will punish savers.
    Good luck.

  21. Arthur
    October 19, 2012 | 4:06 pm

    Hi Barb.
    Inflation will come in next 2-3 years.

  22. Barb
    October 19, 2012 | 7:07 pm

    @Arthur, I agree that it’ll be hear sometime in the foreseeable future.

Leave a Reply

Wanting to leave an <em>phasis on your comment?

CommentLuv badge

Spam Protection by WP-SpamFree

Trackback URL http://barbarafriedbergpersonalfinance.com/how-to-prepare-for-the-coming-inflation/trackback/