MBA Course: Investing & Portfolio Management-Class 2





BONDS

Categories: investing, mutual funds, bonds

“The social object of skilled investment should be to defeat the dark forces of time and ignorance which envelope our future” John Maynard Keynes

One of the foremost economists of the last century succinctly states a reason to invest. Learn the simple principles of investing through this MBA series taken directly from the graduate course I’m teaching in Investing & Portfolio Management. Don’t be intimidated, grasp important investment concepts in an easy to understand format.

After reading this article you will gain a useable investing skill.

As I mentioned previously, please follow these steps before beginning any investment program.

Main Topic: What are BONDS & do I need them?

 

Last class we talked about risk versus reward. In investing, the greater the risk, the more opportunity for reward or a high return.  Risk means that your investment is going to go up and down in value; with higher risk investments  exhibiting greater volatility.

 A BOND is a loan to a corporation, municipality, or government. When you buy a bond you are making a loan to the bond issuer. In exchange for the loan, you receive an interest payment. The amount of interest you are paid is directly related to amount of risk you are taking. (The interest in bonds is called a coupon payment).

Buy a corporate bond from a corporation with financial troubles, you get a high interest rate because if that company goes bankrupt, you might lose all of your initial investment.

Buy a U.S. government bond, you get lower interest rate, because your money is invested with a secure government who will pay you back your original investment when the bond matures.

A government bond is the safest bond to buy; it also has the lowest interest rate. Riskier bonds pay higher interest rates.

Here’s why you need bonds:

Jose is 33 years old, married, with term life insurance, 6 months cash in a savings account, and pays off his credit card bill in full every month. Three years ago, he and his wife invested in 2 index mutual funds:

  1. Vanguard total stock market index (VTSMX)
  2. Vanguard total international stock index (VGTSX)

He believed that since these 2 funds held lots of different companies from various parts of the world, he was sufficiently diversified and did not need any other investments.

 Look what happened to the value of his investment portfolio from 2007-present.

Fund Percent in Fund 3 Year Return
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) 50% -07.68%
Vanguard Total International Stock Index (VGTSX) 50% -10.25%
COMBINED RETURN FROM BOTH INVESTMENTS 100% -08.97%

 What if he added BONDS to the portfolio 3 years ago? 

Fund Percent in Fund 3 Year Return
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTSMX) 33% -7.68%
Vanguard Total International Stock Index (VGTSX) 33% -10.25%
Vanguard Total Bond Index (VBMFX) 34% 7.17%
COMBINED RETURN FROM ALL 3 INVESTMENTS 100% -03.45%

 Notice, with no bonds, Jose’s portfolio LOST 8.97% over 3 years; with bonds, his portfolio lost only 3.45%.

PRACTICAL APPLICATION: What is the takeaway?

  • Investing is only for money needed in 5 years or more, because in the short term, the returns are volatile. These last 3 years prove that point.
  • As long term returns of stocks and bonds are almost always positive and greater than returns in savings accounts, these investments are beneficial for generating long term wealth.
  • Combine bonds, stocks, and some cash to an investment portfolio to lower risk (volatility).
  • A combination of stocks, bonds, and cash will likely beat the investment returns over a cash savings account over the long term.

Why invest at all, the 3 year returns were NEGATIVE?

  • Historically long term returns for stocks are about 9%, bonds near 5%, and cash in the low single digits.
  • Combine the three assets, reduce risk, and increase returns over cash alone.
  • Invest in mutual funds to simplify. No need to pick individual stocks or bonds.
  • Although 3 year returns were negative, had Jose continued to invest monthly, instead of just once at the beginning of the 3 year period, his returns would have been higher.
  • It is highly likely that in 10 years and longer, his investment value will be much greater. 

Caveat: This article is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for your individual situation.

ACTION STEP:

Get a notebook and label it: “(your name) Personal Finance” and keep it by the computer. Use it to keep all of your personal finance goals, thoughts, activities, and plans.

Learn more about bond investing at Money Chimp. 

Yakezie Short Carnival: Personal Finance Lessons Learned from Bambi @ Personal Finance Firewall;  The Cost of Making your House a Home; Average Spend in your First Year of Home Ownership @ Frugal  Confessions; Post Transaction Marketing; Helpful Links or Ripoff @ The Millionaire Nurse

9 Responses to MBA Course: Investing & Portfolio Management-Class 2
  1. Andrew Hallam
    June 13, 2010 | 11:31 pm

    This looks like a great course you’re teaching Barb. Well done–and I enjoyed this post.

    I linked to your blog from a comment you made on BalanceJunkie’s blog.

    Like you, I am somewhat baffled that there are people who think they can jump in and out of markets based on what they feel a short term direction is going to be. I love what John Bogle says about this: to paraphrase, he suggests that in 50 years of investing, he has never known anyone who has had the ability to do this and benefit from it, long term. Then he goes on to suggest that he doesn’t know anyone who even knows anyone who has been able to market time.

    That’s where “hope” tries to transcend experience. Kenneth Fisher doesn’t call the stock market, “The Ultimate Humiliator” for nothing.

    My guess is this. If we all lived 300 years, and we all followed the stock markets during the last 200 years, there wouldn’t be market timers.

    But I suppose that, without them (for us competitive folks) there wouldn’t be as many people for us to beat!

    Thanks for the wisdom-spreading.

    Andrew

  2. Barb
    June 14, 2010 | 8:32 am

    Andrew, Welcome to the site! Very well put. The research is so clear in favor of asset allocation, patience, & time in the market, it’s amazing that there is such a huge investment industry! Please stop back again, your comments pulled in some important voices of reason in the investing field. Best regards, Barb

  3. Amanda L Grossman
    June 14, 2010 | 11:47 am

    Hello! Thank you for the mention:).

  4. Roshawn @ Watson Inc
    June 14, 2010 | 1:08 pm

    @Barb,

    Great quote. What are your thoughts on his economic theory?

    Regarding the post: What impact does age have on your investment strategy in this example? Traditionally, people increase their bond/cash allocations as they age while simultaneously decreasing stock.

  5. Barb
    June 15, 2010 | 1:08 pm

    @Shawn, Keynes is “the man” in economic theory, most of current economics is based on his original theories. He introduced the idea of govt control of interest rates to control inflation & increasing govt spending (through govt projects)as well as deficit spending to increase employment levels. I think a balance between govt intervention and capital market forces is the way to go. As in most things, finding the right balance is the tricky part.
    You are correct about the asset allocation that typically, older individuals want to preserve their capital and thus hold a higher % in bond/cash and less in stock allocations. It is a really personal decision based on income potential, risk tolerance, & level of resources, in other words, each person has to tailore their asset allocation to their own situation.
    Thanks for making me think Shawn! Best regards, Barb

  6. TSDating
    June 15, 2010 | 7:14 pm

    Hi, I go over all your blogs, keep them coming.

  7. Barb
    June 19, 2010 | 8:37 am

    @TSDating-thank you, I appreciate your participation, it makes for a great community. Best regards, Barb

  8. [...] Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance: MBA Course: Investing & Portfolio Management-Class 2 [...]

  9. [...] This is the third class in the series, please check out MBA CLASS 1: Risk & Reward  and MBA CLASS 2: Bonds, as [...]

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